An Unprecedented Financial Earthquake

The stock market is bracing for a historic event: the IPO of SpaceX, valued at over $2 trillion, closely followed by OpenAI and Anthropic, each with the potential to reach a trillion dollars. Within months, three AI giants could list on Wall Street, with a combined market cap of up to $4 trillion. To put this in perspective, in 2021—a record year—all IPOs worldwide raised $671 billion across 38,644 deals. Now, three companies could multiply that figure by six.

Microsoft on Thin Ice

For Microsoft, the impact goes beyond the numbers. Until recently, the Redmond giant dominated the AI summit, but its position has weakened. Over the past 12 months, its shares have fallen 24%, while the S&P 500 rose 24%. Worse, its main rival, Google, has seen its valuation soar from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion, far surpassing Microsoft ($2.8 trillion). The reason: Google's AI momentum contrasts with the stagnation of Copilot, Microsoft's assistant.

Matt Vellosso, a former Microsoft executive who worked 14 years at the company, including as technical advisor to CEO Satya Nadella, is critical: “Microsoft missed the internet wave, the mobile wave, and now it has missed the AI wave.”

Impact on Stock Price and Finances

The arrival of these mega-IPOs could further pressure Microsoft's stock price. Investors eager to ride the AI wave will now have more options: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. This could divert capital away from Microsoft, making it harder to raise funds and make acquisitions. However, not all is negative: Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI, so if OpenAI reaches a trillion dollars, its stake would be worth $270 billion.

Azure, the Big Winner

Azure's revenues could skyrocket. The separation agreement with OpenAI requires it to spend $250 billion on Azure cloud services through 2030. Additionally, according to HSBC, Anthropic could spend $43 billion annually on Azure by that date. This guarantees a multi-billion dollar, sustained revenue stream for Microsoft, as we analyzed in our article on the network as the backbone of AI.

Copilot Under Siege

Despite the boost to Azure, Microsoft's own Copilot faces fierce competition. As of April 2026, Microsoft 365 Copilot had only 20 million paid licenses, just 4% of the 450 million enterprise subscribers. Developers are migrating to alternatives like Claude Code (from Anthropic) and Cursor (acquired by SpaceX). According to a JetBrains survey, GitHub Copilot has fallen from a 67% market share to just 29%, while Cursor and Claude Code are tied at 18% each.

More Risks than Opportunities

In summary, while the IPOs will bring benefits to Azure and capital gains from its stake in OpenAI, the increased competition in AI poses an existential threat to Microsoft's dominance. As we noted in our analysis of SpaceX's strategy, the AI ecosystem is rapidly reshaping. If Microsoft fails to significantly improve Copilot, its AI leadership could fade, leaving the company in a secondary position relative to the newly listed giants.

Original source: ComputerWorld. Analysis and adaptation by ForgeNEX.